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Research Question

Which identities have seen the strongest change over time?

Methods

  • How many US adults per 10,000 would answer Yes when asked: Does signifier describe you today? That number is the prevalence of the signifier.
  • I estimate the prevalence of signifiers at many points in time.
  • I can only afford noisy daily estimates, but that's OK. Trends will reveal themselves as data accumulates.
  • I use a very simple model: linear regression predicting daily change in prevalence.

Results

Trends of Highest Confidence

(A low value of p means the estimate is statistically reliable.)

Signifier Trend Change p
frequent flyer -14 < 0.01
gamer -7 < 0.01
accelerationist -10 < 0.01
technophile -15 < 0.01
freshman -2 < 0.01
drone operator -3 < 0.01
foodie -19 0.01
student -2 0.01
science fiction fan -19 0.01
heartbroken 8 0.01
Scorpio -9 0.01
MAGA (Make America Great Again) -3 0.01
New York Mets fan -8 0.01
customer service representative -9 0.01
Toronto Blue Jays fan 4 0.01
marvel fan -16 0.01
Los Angeles Dodgers fan 8 0.02
fiscal conservative -15 0.02
computer geek -15 0.02
working parent -15 0.02
Arizona Cardinals fan -2 0.02
Capricorn -9 0.02
aspiring artist 11 0.02
beautiful -13 0.02

Most Extreme Trends

(Be careful; these can be driven by short-term trends or low observation count.)

Signifier Trend Change p
foodie -19 0.01
science fiction fan -19 0.01
marvel fan -16 0.01
working parent -15 0.02
technophile -15 < 0.01
computer geek -15 0.02
fiscal conservative -15 0.02
AI enthusiast -15 0.03
leftist 14 0.03
frequent flyer -14 < 0.01
dog person 14 0.04
organized 13 0.03
beautiful -13 0.02
The Simpsons fan 13 0.04
son 12 0.06
unorganized -12 0.03
researcher 12 0.08
caregiver -11 0.08
aspiring artist 11 0.02
risk-taking 11 0.09
gambler 11 0.06
photographer 11 0.07
risk-seeking 10 0.06
relaxed 10 0.07
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