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Research Question

Which identities have seen the strongest change over time?

Methods

  • How many US adults per 10,000 would answer Yes when asked: Does signifier describe you today? That number is the prevalence of the signifier.
  • I estimate the prevalence of signifiers at many points in time.
  • I can only afford noisy daily estimates, but that's OK. Trends will reveal themselves as data accumulates.
  • I use a very simple model: linear regression predicting daily change in prevalence.

Results

Trends of Highest Confidence

(A low value of p means the estimate is statistically reliable.)

Signifier Trend Change p
Democratic Socialist -153 < 0.01
Los Angeles Rams fan -20 < 0.01
poor 69 0.01
salesperson -82 0.02
mama -57 0.02
visual learner -126 0.02
graphic designer 68 0.02
Virgo -89 0.02
police officer -55 0.02
voter 58 0.02
😍 156 0.03
union member -93 0.03
reliable -42 0.03
married -66 0.03
Los Angeles Chargers fan -25 0.03
🥵 -210 0.03
Miami Dolphins fan -21 0.03
youtuber -92 0.03
paleo -72 0.04
poet 51 0.04
redditor -104 0.04
project manager -98 0.04
founder -57 0.04
Never-Trumper 122 0.04

Most Extreme Trends

(Be careful; these can be driven by short-term trends or low observation count.)

Signifier Trend Change p
🌶️ 220 0.06
🥵 -210 0.03
🥶 171 0.07
😍 156 0.03
Democratic Socialist -153 < 0.01
visual learner -126 0.02
Never-Trumper 122 0.04
🙏 120 0.42
cook -108 0.11
redditor -104 0.04
working parent -103 0.07
computer geek -102 0.05
marvel fan 101 0.10
Star Wars fan -99 0.06
project manager -98 0.04
union member -93 0.03
reality TV fan 93 0.05
youtuber -92 0.03
Virgo -89 0.02
mentor 89 0.10
religious 86 0.10
The Simpsons fan 85 0.07
pro-life 83 0.14
efficient 82 0.09
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