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Research Question

Which identities have seen the strongest change over time?

Methods

  • How many US adults per 10,000 would answer Yes when asked: Does signifier describe you today? That number is the prevalence of the signifier.
  • I estimate the prevalence of signifiers at many points in time.
  • I can only afford noisy daily estimates, but that's OK. Trends will reveal themselves as data accumulates.
  • I use a very simple model: linear regression predicting daily change in prevalence.

Results

Trends of Highest Confidence

(A low value of p means the estimate is statistically reliable.)

Signifier Trend Change p
😍 111 < 0.01
partnered 84 < 0.01
Los Angeles Dodgers fan 34 0.01
family-oriented 38 0.01
union member -55 0.01
paleo -42 0.01
youtuber -59 0.01
Democratic Socialist -76 0.01
student -10 0.01
police officer -29 0.01
vegan -17 0.02
Houston Texans fan -17 0.02
anti-Trump -45 0.02
grandparent -44 0.02
redditor -61 0.02
Aries -38 0.03
sneakerhead 39 0.03
Virgo -53 0.03
The Simpsons fan 62 0.03
junior -6 0.03
writer 57 0.03
failure -23 0.04
leftist 57 0.04
Utah Jazz fan 23 0.04

Most Extreme Trends

(Be careful; these can be driven by short-term trends or low observation count.)

Signifier Trend Change p
😍 111 < 0.01
partnered 84 < 0.01
Democratic Socialist -76 0.01
respected -76 0.07
maga 74 0.81
The Beatles fan 72 0.04
🌶️ 68 0.19
2a supporter -62 0.07
humanist 62 0.12
The Simpsons fan 62 0.03
reality TV fan 62 0.04
redditor -61 0.02
youtuber -59 0.01
🤒 59 0.09
caregiver -57 0.08
leftist 57 0.04
writer 57 0.03
iPhone user -55 0.08
union member -55 0.01
Virgo -53 0.03
witty 53 0.04
workaholic -52 0.11
progressive -52 0.10
unorganized -51 0.08
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