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Research Question

Which identities have seen the strongest change over time?

Methods

  • How many US adults per 10,000 would answer Yes when asked: Does signifier describe you today? That number is the prevalence of the signifier.
  • I estimate the prevalence of signifiers at many points in time.
  • I can only afford noisy daily estimates, but that's OK. Trends will reveal themselves as data accumulates.
  • I use a very simple model: linear regression predicting daily change in prevalence.

Results

Trends of Highest Confidence

(A low value of p means the estimate is statistically reliable.)

Signifier Trend Change p
male -2 < 0.01
MAGA (Make America Great Again) -1 < 0.01
investor -2 < 0.01
homeowner -1 < 0.01
beautiful 6 < 0.01
overthinker 5 < 0.01
singer 4 < 0.01
modest -4 < 0.01
widow -2 < 0.01
anxious 1 < 0.01
IT specialist -3 < 0.01
beer lover -1 < 0.01
leftist 5 0.01
Anarchist 2 0.01
construction worker -1 0.01
gardener 4 0.01
Orlando Magic fan -2 0.01
composer 2 0.01
AI creator 1 0.01
childcare worker 2 0.01
neurodivergent 2 0.01
Presbyterian -2 0.01
police officer -1 0.01
she/her 5 0.01

Most Extreme Trends

(Be careful; these can be driven by short-term trends or low observation count.)

Signifier Trend Change p
beautiful 6 < 0.01
overthinker 5 < 0.01
leftist 5 0.01
she/her 5 0.01
modest -4 < 0.01
singer 4 < 0.01
gardener 4 0.01
social conservative -4 0.03
planner -4 0.03
IT specialist -3 < 0.01
Instagram user -3 0.04
data nerd -3 0.05
pretty 3 0.06
partner 3 0.07
iPhone user 3 0.08
amateur artist 3 0.05
team player -3 0.07
neighborly -3 0.08
efficient 3 0.03
organized 3 0.05
fiscal conservative -3 0.06
mystery fan -3 0.13
traditional -3 0.14
environmentalist -3 0.15
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