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Research Question

Which identities have seen the strongest change over time?

Methods

  • How many US adults per 10,000 would answer Yes when asked: Does signifier describe you today? That number is the prevalence of the signifier.
  • I estimate the prevalence of signifiers at many points in time.
  • I can only afford noisy daily estimates, but that's OK. Trends will reveal themselves as data accumulates.
  • I use a very simple model: linear regression predicting daily change in prevalence.

Results

Trends of Highest Confidence

(A low value of p means the estimate is statistically reliable.)

Signifier Trend Change p
Republican -66 < 0.01
thrifty 146 0.01
people-pleaser 323 0.01
Los Angeles Rams fan -47 0.01
Buddhist -158 0.01
Cleveland Browns fan -19 0.01
eSports fan -185 0.01
Democratic Socialist -290 0.01
patient 187 0.02
conservative -138 0.02
MAGA (Make America Great Again) -53 0.02
funny -145 0.02
👑 958 0.02
churchgoer -56 0.02
insomniac 148 0.02
mama -123 0.02
hopeless -120 0.02
app developer -49 0.02
Cleveland Cavaliers fan -47 0.03
Cincinnati Reds fan -72 0.03
youtuber -222 0.03
AI enthusiast -257 0.03
queer -178 0.03
salesperson -171 0.03

Most Extreme Trends

(Be careful; these can be driven by short-term trends or low observation count.)

Signifier Trend Change p
🙏 2143 0.03
💔 -979 0.20
👑 958 0.02
🥵 -673 0.35
people-pleaser 323 0.01
Democratic Socialist -290 0.01
AI enthusiast -257 0.03
nostalgic -240 0.05
cook -231 0.11
nba fan 226 0.08
youtuber -222 0.03
2a supporter -221 0.05
working parent -219 0.09
suburban -219 0.08
Never-Trumper 207 0.13
tired 204 0.08
perfectionist -201 0.11
volunteer -194 0.09
monogamist 192 0.07
entrepreneur 191 0.08
judgmental 190 0.19
non-denominational 189 0.08
amateur chef 187 0.22
patient 187 0.02
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