{
  "schema_version": 1,
  "analysis": "training_leave_one_out_change_volume_forecasting",
  "cases": 150,
  "benchmark": {
    "commit": "9b6a766712583fec8d3182957260b1123fbfa146",
    "training_sha256": "720aea3c4a9f7ad96ff3960ad6faa36991e1771dc43793c9e16e33b583bd4a48",
    "evaluator_sha256": "1236dbcca70129f6200c2703dd67649dbfa760a2a7f74402fa1d3d956b97b2ae",
    "analysis_plan_sha256": "53c974fcd37f443ea846e88328a125169265fb41ac1cc7877529bdbf9a09638f",
    "retrieval_feature_implementation_sha256": "05f64bb95440dcea8125358441878612e71ba19b898a791a0d3a200511a5077e"
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  "design": {
    "training_cases_per_fold": 149,
    "neighbor_count": 30,
    "neighbor_effective_weight": 30.0,
    "fold_prior_effective_weight": 30.0,
    "estimator": "weighted median",
    "source_representation": "text and field-qualified 2024 demographics with fold-fit TF-IDF",
    "future_information_used_for_prediction": "none",
    "warning": "This forecasts revision volume and response form, not correct future lexical content."
  },
  "mean_selected_neighbor_cosine_similarity": {
    "mean": 0.169564,
    "median": 0.17436
  },
  "outcomes": {
    "add_count": {
      "observed": {
        "mean": 39.433333,
        "median": 31.0
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_prediction": {
        "mean": 31.0,
        "median": 31.0
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_prediction": {
        "mean": 29.706667,
        "median": 29.0
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 21.34,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 29.099714
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 20.126667,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 28.728499
      },
      "paired_absolute_error_comparison": {
        "effect_definition": "marginal_mae_minus_neighborhood_mae",
        "mean_effect_positive_favors_neighborhood": 1.213333,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_low": 0.68,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_high": 1.74,
        "neighborhood_case_wins": 79,
        "case_ties": 17,
        "neighborhood_case_losses": 54
      }
    },
    "delete_count": {
      "observed": {
        "mean": 43.466667,
        "median": 36.0
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_prediction": {
        "mean": 42.30975,
        "median": 34.783183
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      "regularized_neighborhood_prediction": {
        "mean": 42.712057,
        "median": 34.735714
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 5.614935,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 8.146901
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 5.336275,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 7.873112
      },
      "paired_absolute_error_comparison": {
        "effect_definition": "marginal_mae_minus_neighborhood_mae",
        "mean_effect_positive_favors_neighborhood": 0.27866,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_low": 0.022274,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_high": 0.545876,
        "neighborhood_case_wins": 88,
        "case_ties": 5,
        "neighborhood_case_losses": 57
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    },
    "word_count": {
      "observed": {
        "mean": 88.533333,
        "median": 86.5
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_prediction": {
        "mean": 95.96,
        "median": 84.5
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_prediction": {
        "mean": 88.26,
        "median": 76.5
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 56.08,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 79.868141
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 52.94,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 75.60604
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      "paired_absolute_error_comparison": {
        "effect_definition": "marginal_mae_minus_neighborhood_mae",
        "mean_effect_positive_favors_neighborhood": 3.14,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_low": 1.093333,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_high": 5.213333,
        "neighborhood_case_wins": 82,
        "case_ties": 13,
        "neighborhood_case_losses": 55
      }
    },
    "line_count": {
      "observed": {
        "mean": 8.413333,
        "median": 1.0
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_prediction": {
        "mean": 8.16,
        "median": 1.0
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_prediction": {
        "mean": 8.16,
        "median": 1.0
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 6.16,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 10.340857
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 6.16,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 10.340857
      },
      "paired_absolute_error_comparison": {
        "effect_definition": "marginal_mae_minus_neighborhood_mae",
        "mean_effect_positive_favors_neighborhood": 0.0,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_low": 0.0,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_high": 0.0,
        "neighborhood_case_wins": 0,
        "case_ties": 150,
        "neighborhood_case_losses": 0
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    },
    "source_similarity": {
      "observed": {
        "mean": 0.200017,
        "median": 0.17789
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_prediction": {
        "mean": 0.17789,
        "median": 0.17789
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_prediction": {
        "mean": 0.192438,
        "median": 0.188235
      },
      "source_calibrated_marginal_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 0.109648,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 0.142223
      },
      "regularized_neighborhood_error": {
        "mean_absolute_error": 0.106781,
        "root_mean_squared_error": 0.135809
      },
      "paired_absolute_error_comparison": {
        "effect_definition": "marginal_mae_minus_neighborhood_mae",
        "mean_effect_positive_favors_neighborhood": 0.002867,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_low": -0.00096,
        "paired_case_bootstrap_95_ci_high": 0.00673,
        "neighborhood_case_wins": 75,
        "case_ties": 10,
        "neighborhood_case_losses": 65
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    }
  },
  "bootstrap": {
    "unit": "paired training case",
    "resamples": 20000,
    "seed_restarted_for_each_outcome": 20260923,
    "interval": "percentile",
    "confidence_level": 0.95,
    "interpretation": "Describes sensitivity to training-case composition; it is not a population-generalization interval."
  },
  "claim_boundary": "This is a locked training-cohort diagnostic using a previously selected representation and hyperparameters, not untouched confirmation, development performance, or private-test performance."
}